Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Discussion in 'Earthquake & Tsunami Alert's and News' started by NHC Webmaster, Jul 17, 2017 at 8:36 AM.

  1. NHC Webmaster

    NHC Webmaster Guest

    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0
    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 171143
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Fernanda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
    the Baja California peninsula.

    Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization over the
    last day in association with a well-defined area of low pressure
    located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although
    upper-level winds are not conducive, any further development of the
    system will lead to the formation of a tropical depression at any
    time. The low is expected to move toward the west-northwest at
    5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    Showers and thunderstorms have also increased during the past day or
    so near an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles
    south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. Although
    environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, this system
    has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next
    day or so before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
    development. The low is expected to move slowly to the west or
    west-northwest during the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    Another area of low pressure is expected to form in the eastern
    Pacific Ocean south of Mexico late this week. Environmental
    conditions appear conducive for some development of the system by
    the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
    15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Landsea

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