Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 21

Discussion in 'Earthquake & Tsunami Alert's and News' started by NHC Webmaster, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. NHC Webmaster

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    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0
    Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018


    000
    WTPZ33 KNHC 142100
    TCPEP3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 21
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
    300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    ...BUD STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
    BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
    ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


    SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.2N 109.8W
    ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a
    portion of eastern Baja California Sur from La Paz northward to
    San Evaristo, and also for western mainland Mexico from Altata
    northward to Huatabampito.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
    * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch
    means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
    area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California
    Sur, and within the next 48 hours across western Mexico.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
    located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is
    moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
    northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track,
    the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
    tonight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The
    weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland
    Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud is
    forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches
    southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to
    weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay
    into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while
    it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center. During the past few hours, a Mexican Navy automatic
    weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas reported a
    sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). More
    recently, a Mexican Conagua weather station in Cabo San Lucas
    reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph
    (76 km/h).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
    area now, and those conditions will continue into tonight. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch
    area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area
    beginning Friday morning and continuing into Friday evening.

    RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
    isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
    California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
    Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening
    flash floods and mud slides.

    Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
    across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
    of 3 inches.

    SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
    the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
    southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
    office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
    Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart

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