Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 21A

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  1. NHC Webmaster

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    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0
    Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018


    000
    WTPZ33 KNHC 142330
    TCPEP3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
    600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    ...BUD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS...
    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
    CALIFORNIA SUR...

    SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.6 109.8W
    ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
    * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch
    means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
    area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California
    Sur, and within the next 36 hours across western Mexico.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
    located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is
    moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
    northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track,
    the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
    later this evening and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.
    The weakening cyclone, or its remnants, are expected to move over
    mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then
    dissipate.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud
    is forecast to weaken tonight as the cyclone moves across the Baja
    California peninsula. The system should decay into a tropical
    depression by Friday and become a remnant low when it moves inland
    over mainland Mexico.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Mexican Navy
    automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas
    reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial
    observation from the marina in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a
    sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
    area now, and those conditions will continue through tonight.
    Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California
    Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area
    beginning Friday morning.

    RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
    isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
    California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
    Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening
    flash floods and mud slides.

    Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
    across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
    of 3 inches.

    SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
    the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
    southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
    office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

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