Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7

Discussion in 'Earthquake & Tsunami Alert's and News' started by NHC Webmaster, Jul 23, 2019.

  1. NHC Webmaster

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    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019


    612
    WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
    TCDEP5

    Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
    200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

    Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory.
    Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary
    convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated
    from the surface circulation. An ASCAT overpass from around midday
    sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected
    35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been
    slightly stronger than analyzed this morning. Based on the ASCAT
    and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the
    initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

    Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt. The cyclone is
    currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
    ridge over the southwestern United States. As Dalila weakens and
    becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24
    hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the
    low-level steering flow. The latest guidance envelope is not much
    different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is
    essentially an update of the previous advisory.

    Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly
    shear is not forecast to abate. As a result, gradual weakening is
    anticipated. As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a
    more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should
    lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical
    remnant low in 24 to 36 hours. The intensity guidance is in good
    agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the
    model consensus.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

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