Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7

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Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019


612
WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory.
Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary
convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated
from the surface circulation. An ASCAT overpass from around midday
sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected
35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been
slightly stronger than analyzed this morning. Based on the ASCAT
and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt. The cyclone is
currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States. As Dalila weakens and
becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24
hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the
low-level steering flow. The latest guidance envelope is not much
different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly
shear is not forecast to abate. As a result, gradual weakening is
anticipated. As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a
more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should
lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 to 36 hours. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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