Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 14

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Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160823
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center
has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is
in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500
UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that
data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.

The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25
C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving
over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger
southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is
now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate
within a few days.

Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains
steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about
another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is
expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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